The NDP stand right now at 106 seats if they want to win a majority government they would have to win 170 seats. that means they would have to gain 64 seats. With 30 new seats coming into the house of commons this will be very preliminary prediction as the makeup of the riding’s aren’t made yet. Now since Mulcair is leader let me show you the most plausible way the NDP can get into power.
Let’s say because Muclair is leader he keeps all his NDP seats from last time get’s the extra 3 seats that have just been awarded to Quebec and even get’s 4 more seats in the province let’s say 2 from Montreal two from rural areas. That’s 7 seats. That gives the NDP 65 out of the 78 seats in the province.
In the Atlantic I don’t see much room for them to grow except two seats in Nova Scotia. So let’s say they get those two seats. That leaves 55 seats to go and as you can see they can’t achieve this with just the east they are going to need Ontario and the west.
In Ontario where they will get 15 extra seats we can assume a large portion would go to Toronto. So it would be safe to say a good 6 would go to the NDP if everything stays the way it is, but if the NDP want power they are going to have to do better. surprisingly enough besides the urban urban center of Toronto the outer core they did horrible. they are going to have to break into the outer part of Toronto and try and grab the south part of the province as well as the rural center part.Pretty much nothing short of a big swing to the NDP almost certanly spells death to any odds of a majority government .If they get that big swing I could see them winning 40 seats and instead of 6 out of the 13 new seats how about 10. that would put the NDP at 72 seats out of the 123 seats Ontario will have in 2015. Now I could say that the NDP would get a majority of the seats in Ontario, but I just don’t see that happening. I think this is what they could reasonably expect and maybe even expect less.
That leaves 5 seats to go. In the prairies is where the NDP is really going to have to step up their game, but see this is the difficult part for them as it is hard to get rural votes here and still get urban votes in Ontario and especially many votes in Quebec. so if the NDP get the landslide in Ontario and Quebec I would think it hard to get any seats in Alberta (let alone maybe lose their only seat) and in Saskatchewan I don’t see them getting any seats there either. In Manitoba they may get one or two Winnipeg seats, but for the sake of argument let’s say it turns out to be a zero gain here.
In BC is where I see them able to those last 5 seats and more. In BC if they want to win the plurality of the votes. They have to get the Liberals practically out of Vancouver win those marginal Conservative seats in the rural areas and win strong rural conservative areas if they wish to win BC. So in conclusion this is the scenario I think is most likely for the NDP to achieve power.